Robin Van Persie, Shinji Kagawa and Wayne Rooney: Can, and will, all three Manchester United superstars play together?

Van Perise and Kagawa have clicked but can Rooney join in?

Nearing the start of the Premier League season, Manchester United had managed to bolster their squad with the inclusion of one of the Bundesliga's top players, Shinji Kagawa. It was seen by many as the missing link which prevented United from gaining silverware last season, and reason for their failure in Europe; along with the return of long term injury sufferers Tom Cleverley and Nemaja Vidic, the squad seemed complete for the up coming season. Then Fergie pulled off a surprise, he signed Robin Van Persie. 

Van Persie is only the third over 27 years of age player Ferguson has signed for more than 10 Million Pounds, joining Sebastian Veron and Dimitar Berbatov, so to say that this type of a signing is rare is an understatement. Both Veron and Berbatov were also seen as luxury signings, for their price, at the time and both ended up having not so great careers at Old Trafford as they saw their chances limited by inconsistent performances and the better performances of players competing for the same position. Manchester United only had Wayne Rooney, Danny Welbeck and Javier Hernandez (Berbatov was expected to leave) as first team strikers so maybe a fourth striker was necessary, Ferguson has always liked to have four strikers he can rely on, but with the performances of Welbeck last season and Hernandez's potential, was it really necessary to bid over 20 million pounds for Van Persie? What makes the decision to sign Van Persie even more perplexing is the inclusion of Shinji Kagawa, a player who has rarely played as part of a two striker system.

Shinji Kagawa's position over his career:

Kagawa with Dortmund: Playing with Gotze and Kuba:

Kagawa might've started his career Cerezo Osaka but he only began to get noticed once he joined Borussia Dortmund for a meager fee 350k dollars.. At Borussia Dortmund, he played his whole two seasons as the tip of a 3 man midfield in a 4-2-3-1 formation, it was with Mario Gotze, who played as the right winger, that he formed a potent partnership which terrorized Bundesliga defenses, though both didn't play together as much as they would've wanted as injuries to both players meant that their time together was cut short in both seasons. Manager of Borussia Dortmund, Jurgen Klopp, knew he had two fabulously talented playmakers in Gotze and Kagawa but that they both preferred to play just in behind the main striker, so he sought to fix that by playing both in a rotating role. 

Kagawa (left) and Gotze (right) playing vs Hamburger SV at home (c) Bundesliga.de

It's easy to see that both interchanged positions regularly. Gotze was given the freedom to come centrally when he pleased with Klopp knowing that Kagawa could give a good shift out on the right. This was the first game of the season and Gotze played alongside Kagawa for much of the first half of the season until an injury before the winter break ruled him out for effectively the rest of the season, that meant that Klopp had to call upon the services of Kuba Blaszczykowski, a true winger rather than Gotze, the playmaker. As expected, Kagawa's role was changed that little bit slightly to accommodate the different playing styles of the two right wingers.

Kagawa (left) and Kuba (right) playing vs Hannover at home (c) Bundesliga.de

The difference between Kuba and Gotze is quite clear to see with one rotating from central positions to the right wing and the other constantly moving centrally to play his favoured position. Kagawa's role subsequently also changed somewhat with the Japansese international  sticking to a more central position than when playing with Gotze. So we're seen Kagawa play two slightly different roles, the question is now in which role was he most successful?

Kagawa's record playing with Gotze in the 2011-12 Bundesliga season was 4 goals and 5 assists over 15 matches while his record with Kuba in the same season was 10 goals and 7 assists over 17 matches. While there are definitely other reasons behind Kagawa's poorer form with Gotze, such as Dortmund's difficulty in replacing Sahin early on the season, it can be seen that, generally, Kagawa plays better when he is played strictly in a central position rather than being rotated out wide to accommodate another player. 

Kagawa with Japan: A Left Winger role:

While I have not seen much of Kagawa, from what I've read he has played most of his career for the Japanese national team as a left winger rotating centrally with their left footed attacking playmaker, Keisuke Honda. It's difficult to judge how good Kagawa has been for the blue Samurai's so I'l not say much about Kagawa fitting into that role but the fact that he comes in centrally a lot does show that he, as do his managers, does not think of himself as a natural wide player.

Kagawa early on with Manchester United:

Kagawa vs Everton and Fulahm (c) ESPN Soccernet*

It's clear to see that Kagawa has been continuing with his preferred central role at United and that there hasn't been much rotation out on the wings, atleast as much as there was when he was playing with Gotze. A major reason for this could be the wingers he is playing with at United, most notably Antonio Valencia down the right who is, like Kuba, a true winger. Also, Manchester United play with a lot more natural width than did Dortmund and that can be something Kagawa would have to get used to. It's not surprising to notice that Manchester United averaged seven more (35%) more crosses than Borussia Dortmund last season and that United's winger's in the league last season (Antonio Valencia, Nani and Ashley Young) averaged more crosses per game than Dortmund's. While Kagawa would have to get used to this more direct style of play, the fact that he has currently played in a central role means that he won't have much trouble adapting and will continue to play well in that position.

Robin Van Persie and Wayne Rooney: A comparison

While Wayne Rooney and Robin Van Persie have been the lead strikers for their club and national sides, their roles in the team are quite different. While Robin Van Persie plays as an out and out 'number 9', Wayne Rooney's role has shifted from the number 9 to a playmaking forward, depending upon the formation Ferguson has chosen. 

Rooney (left) playing in a 4-4-2 and Van Persie (right) (c) ESPN Soccernet

The reason I'm showing an image of Rooney's heat map in a 4-4-2 (Ferguson's favoured formation last season) is because the most obvious formation to play all three of Rooney, Van Persie and Kagawa would be in a 4-4-2 formation, it should be mentioned that Van Perise's heat map is of him playing in a 4-5-1, a formation that has gotten the best out of the Dutchman. It's pretty easy to see the immediate difference in the way both players have played over the last season and it would be expected that if both were to play together then they would assume similar roles since it suits them best. 

Lets have a look at some interesting statistics between the two players to further emphasize the difference in playing style:

(c) MCFC Analytics

The purpose of adding the statistics to this discussion is to make clear that Rooney's role is not that merely of a striker but that of a playmaker as well (explained in more detail superbly here). From his passing stats, you can clearly see that his passing performances mirror more towards those of deep playmakers (Joe Allen, Michael Carrick) than those of a fellow striker like Van Persie. It's also important to note that Van Persie himself has some very good passing statistics, thereby showing that he can also assume the role of a goal creator.

Can Rooney, Van Persie and Kagawa play together? Do they need to be?

The simple answer for me is, no. I do not think that you can play all three players and expect them to play at their top most performances. The issue is comes from the incompatibility of Kagawa to play a more defensive midfield position and Wayne Rooney's tendency to play in the same position as Kagawa (behind the main striker), as his heat map against QPR shows. If there is a possibility to play all three, it would have to come through moving either Rooney or Kagawa from their favourite position and playing them down the left, one would expect Kagawa to be more likely to play that role rather than Rooney. Though Kagawa has played for Japan down the left, his numbers have not been as good as those when playing down the middle for Dortmund (11 goals and 5 assists in 35 matches for Japan, 29 goals and 16 assists in 71 matches for Dortmund).

Rotation and the importance of Kagawa in terms of formation:

One thing to remember is that Sir Alex Ferguson has never been a fan of a consistent starting line-up, regardless of the number of injuries Manchester United have accumulated in past years. Even during last season, when Manchester United played 54 competitive matches, Patrice Evra made the most starts with 47 but well behind him was Wayne Rooney with only 41, the next closest attacker was Nani with just 32 starts, which shows how much Sir Alex is willing to rotate his attackers given the number of tournaments Manchester United take part in year in year out. Herein lies one of the main reasons Sir Alex opted to go for Kagawa, his versatility to play anywhere in the final third. Most notably, the arrival of Kagawa gives Sir Alex the option to have a truely quality playmaker to fill the position of the CAM behind the main striker in a 4-2-3-1, a formation which Sir Alex has been pushing for European competitions in the bigger Premier League matches where the fight of possession is the most important battle on the pitch. An analysis of the formations used by Sir Alex Ferguson over the past four seasons yields some very interesting results, which further illustrate the importance Kagawa will have, whether it be with or without playing alongside Rooney and Van Persie:

1- Out of 244 recorded matches played (155 Premier League matches, 42 Champions League + 4 Europa League matches + 1 Super Cup matches) variations of formations using 1 striker (4-4-1-1, 4-2-3-1, 4-1-4-1, 4-3-3) have been used in 107 matches.

2- Out of those 107 matches, 31 have come in European matches. So eventhough European matches comprise of only 17% of total matches played during the timeline, they comprise of 29% of the matches played with formations with 1 striker.

3- In 155 Premier League matches, the 1 striker formation has been used in 61 matches;  a percentage of 39%. In 47 European matches played, the 1 striker formation has been used in 31 matches; 66% of matches (also both finals against Barcelona have been played with 1 striker). This shows that United have been more inclined to use the formation in European matches as compared to Premier League matches. 

4- The 1 striker formation has been used in 39% of Premier League matches but in 32 possible matches against top 4 opposition (Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea), the formation has been used in 19 matches, a percentage of 59%. 

5- Arsenal (75%) and Chelsea (63%) rank the highest amongst percentage of matches played (given more than a total of 4 matches) with the 1 striker formation while Liverpool and Manchester City (both 50%) are tied with 4 other clubs as the next highest percentage. Therefore we can see truth in the claim that the formation is used more often in the biggest matches rather than against the weaker opponents in the Premier League.

6-  From 2008-2010, a total of 124 matches were played, 34 of those matches were played with 1 striker; a percentage of 27%. From 2010-today, a total of 120 matches have been played, 73 of those matches have been played with 1 striker; a percentage of 61%. This shows that there has been a greater tendency to play the 1 striker formation recently. 

7- In 137 matches played without 1 striker, Manchester United have won 98 times; a win percentage of 72%. In 107 matches played with 1 striker, Manchester United have won 64 times; a win percentage of 60%. This shows United have struggled with the 1 striker formation more than they would like to.

8- In 31 European matches played with 1 striker, Manchester United have won 17 times; a win percentage of 55%. In 61 Premier League matches played, Manchester United have won 37 times, a win percentage of 61%. This shows that United have struggled with the formation more in European matches than domestic. 

*All figures have been calculated courtesy of the formations database provided by www.football-lineups.com*

These eight bullet points highlight the importance Sir Alex Ferguson has been holding to the variations of the 1 striker formation, formations that require the use of a playmaker to sit in behind the main striker. This also illustrates why Sir Alex had been so keen to sign a playmaker before over the past years with failed attempts to sign players such as Mesut Ozil, Wesley Sneijder, Eden Hazard and Lucas. Wayne Rooney has been used most often in that position but his performances in that area have not been upto the standard required of world class playmakers, this is where Shinji Kagawa will be at his most important, to step up in the biggest matches and fill that role. 

Conclusion:

It seems clear that Sir Alex Ferguson had never intended to have a fixed plan with regards to playing his three best attackers at the same time given his history of changing players and formations along with the added fact that Kagawa plays his best in a position clashing with that of Rooney. I don't think we can expect to see all three players playing together as often as one would like to but atleast two of them will be together in majority of the matches, given they are fit and ready of course. While we have seen Kagawa settle in well with Van Persie in the initial matches, it remains to be seen as to whether he and Rooney can co-operate given that Rooney likes to play a bit deeper than Van Persie. That will dictate which of the two strikers Sir Alex will most likely play against the bigger opponents since it is likely that Shinji Kagawa will get a consistent starting role behind the main striker in those matches; as it seems that was the main purpose for bringing him into the team, in order to make United stronger using that formation.

*For the two Soccernet heatmaps under the title 'Kagawa early on with United', ignore how deep the spots are shown for both players, there seems to be an error with Soccernet heatmaps this season with the heatmap being significantly behind the usual line of play. The purpose of the screenshot was to show the lateral play of Shinji Kagawa against Fulham and Everton.