With German publication "Bild" reporting a deal being agreed between Arsenal and FC Cologne regarding the sale of Lukas Podolski, along with interviews with Mertesacker suggesting Podolski is seriously considering moving to London, we can assume to a high degree that the German international striker will be moving to the North London club in the summer, thereby becoming the first of maybe many big name signings over the course of the next few months for Arsene Wenger as he not only looks to add much needed quality into a side struggling to qualify for the Champions League but also show his star man, Robin Van Persie, that he is willing to inject cash into the side in order to sign European quality players.
There have been mixed reactions up till now regarding the possible arrival of the German star. While his recent form has been tremendous (16 goals in 20 appearances this season and 23 league goals in 2011), his lack of form for the only big club he has managed to play for, Bayern Munich, for whom he scored just 15 goals in three seasons, suggests that he might suffer from a lack of mentality which would allow him to shoulder expectations at a big club (though that can be countered by his phenomenal goalscoring statistics at international level).
While the argument regarding his mental strength can be dealt with later by someone else, what is interesting about the prospect of Podolski joining Arsenal is the tactical implications and how the German will be fit into Arsene Wenger's 4-2-3-1 system while, as it seems likely, Robin Van Persie is still at the club. Podolski would most likely be occupying the left attacking midfield position, one that has been problematic of late for Wenger with the lack of form of Arshavin and Gervinho. Those who think that Podolski will thrive in that role like to look back at Podolski's form during his last few years with Germany where he has exclusively played the left winger role and with considerable success, 19 goals and 13 assists in 47 appearances. But will he really be playing a similar role?
Podolski as a LW in Germany and Koln's 4-2-3-1: Ozil's influence
The position and formation might be considerably similar in regards to the basics but the difference in the way Germany's and Arsenal's attacks vary is vast, most of that difference is down to the impact Real Madrid midfielder Mesut Ozil has with his off the ball movement. Again, while being labelled as an central attacking midfielder, it would be harsh on Ozil to say that he plays similarly to players who play under the same position. For the analysis of Podolski, we'l show the considerable difference between Ozil and Arsenal's current regular attacking midfielder, Thomas Rosicky (though Aaron Ramsey has had more appearances at that position):
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| Left: Ozil vs Argentina (World Cup 2010), Right: Rosicky vs Tottenham (EPL 2011-12) (c) ESPN Soccernet |
Podolski hasn't had much experience as a left winger during his club career besides his first season returning from Bayern Munich to FC Koln. That season, despite his poor ones for Bayern, can easily be regarded as his worst thus far as he scored just two goals the whole season playing predominantly as a left winger. Ironically, it was the season prior to the 2010 World Cup where, playing once again as a left winger, Podolski went on to score the same amount of goals as he did for his club in six matches along with providing two assists.
Podolski as a Striker in the 4-2-3-1:
Koln's usual formation this season as been 4-4-2 with Podolski and Novakovic the strikers. Podolski's strike partner though did suffer an injury midway into the first half of the season thus forcing the coach, Solbakken, to play with 5 midfielders and Podolski as the lone striker in a 4-2-3-1. Surprisingly enough though, eventhough Podolski had never shown consistent goalscoring abilities, Podolski was able to lead the line superbly scoring 11 goals in 10 matches. That statistic would be useful for Arsenal fans since one problem they have consistently seen for the past couple of seasons is a lack of striking options on the bench to replace Van Persie. There are still some doubts lingering around Van Persie's future at Arsenal with the Dutchman having not committed to a new contract to replace his current one, which expires next year. Therefore there could be a chance that Wenger considers Podolski as a potential replacement for Van Perise if the Dutchman leaves.
Though Podolski has scored an impressive amount of goals as the lone striker, the tactical approach during those games played with five midfielders is quite different from that not only played by Arsenal but also by Koln with the team playing more defensively thereby relying more on counterattacking. While Koln are generally poor at keeping possession, having an average of 44% (second lowest in the league), the 41% average for the 11 games played with the 4-2-3-1 is lower than their usual. Arsenal's possession stats on the other hand are as high as 58%. Podolski's role as a lone striker at Koln is therefore different from that of Robin Van Persie's, as heat maps from two winning performances of the strikers will show.
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| (c) ESPNSoccernet |
Podolski: A Merchant of Counterattacking Football:
Counterattacking seems to be what Podolski is best at. While not having the greatest of technical abilities on the ball, Podolski's mix of athleticism and finishing ability means that he is great at being able to gain a yard on his defender and finish chances. A highlight of Podolski's directness and finishing ability is in an analysis of his shots to goal ratio in comparison to Europe's other top strikers.
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| Stats taken from Whoscored.com |
But then what can explain this statistic then? Surely a better finisher would need less chances to score? What the shots/game ratio doesn't show are the number of genuine goalscoring chances per game (there wasn't a website or application through which I could directly find statistics related to this) and this is where we can see Podolski's directness in a counter attacking system. Since Koln have such little possession, they are mostly on the defensive and therefore create very little chances (in fact, they create the least chances in the Bundesliga); but most of those chances come through counter attacks and that is where Podolski's abilities come into play. Koln have scored the most total goals through fast breaks (8) and since their overall goals scored is so low in comparison with the top of the league, their fast break goals percentage is at a staggering 28%. Only Real Madrid (13) has atleast the same number of goals amongst teams in the top four leagues but when you consider the number of overall goals scored by the two teams, Madrid (88) and Koln (32), you can see how dependent one team is on counter attacking compared to the other.
Basing attacks through counters does lead to easier, though generally fewer, shots than when compared to playing with possession against a side playing with a deep defense and giving little space in the box for an attacker to score. Therefore that can be part of the reason why Podolski has such a good shots/goal ratio compared to Europe's best strikers. A video of Podolski's goals from the first half of the season shows a high percentage of goals coming from counter attacking situations:
Podolski in a 4-4-2
As iterated before, most, if not all, of Podolski's good form at clubs level has come since he moved into a striker's role, either in a 4-2-3-1 or 4-4-2, starting from last season where he managed an impressive 13 goals and six assists. It has been a long time since Wenger played with the 4-4-2, one would probably say that the formation was last used extensively as far back as the 2007-08 season which saw Arsenal with a plethora of great strikers in Van Persie, Eduardo, Adebayor and Bendtner. Since then, with the injuries to Van Persie, Eduardo, lack of form of Bendtner and departure of Adebayor, Wenger moved towards the 4-2-3-1.
With Podolski's form as a striker/second striker and Van Persie's resurgence upfront, one could see a possibility of switching formations in order to get the best out of Podolski. As mentioned before, Podolski and Van Persie have been playing different roles under the same position this season and therefore a partnership can be created.
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| Podolski in a 4-4-2 (right). Can Poldi and RVP play together? (c) ESPNSoccernet |
Much of the article has been based on the notion that Podolski's direct style of play will not suit Arsenal, even more so if he is played as a left winger rather than in his preferred position as a striker. That is not to say that direct players can not play in a slower possession based system. Direct players like Thomas Muller, for Germany, and Pedro then Alexis Sanchez for Barcelona have been successfully integrated into a 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 as wingers. But that brings us back to the first point in the article about the lack of rotation from central players for Arsenal in comparison with Ozil and Lionel Messi, playing as a 'False 9'.
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| Messi and Sanchez together vs Real Madrid (c) ESPNSoccernet |
Both Robin Van Persie and Aaron Ramsey/Thomas Rosicky have been very stifled position wise this season. There is still a possibility of Van Persie having a greater influence on the wings given his history as a winger early in his Arsenal career, but it would be a huge risk to take him away from his current role to fit in a player who isn't one of the best in the world. It would seem as a if switching to a 4-4-2 system would suit both players most with Podolski retaining his position as a central attacker while Robin Van Persie can continue to play as the furthest man upfront. An issue can arrive as to which wingers to play, but that can be an issue for another article (though at first thought, having Gervinho down the left and Oxlade Chamberlain down the right does not seem like a bad idea given Podolski's eagerness to rotate from the center allowing both players to come in centrally).
*Statistics taken from www.whoscored.com
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